Andrew Salomon
seemed unlikely that Libya, sandwiched between the fall of the regime in Tunisia and the fall of the regime Egypt, could remain immune to the tide.
Gaddafi dominates a country where discontent has been rising and people have watched with growing disgust discrepancies between the rhetoric of direct democracy and autocratic control of power.
In 2006 I wrote an article about him, then, the key issue was whether the vaunted reform process was a reality. It seemed that the greatest reformer was his son Saif Islam. Saif speaks very well, but with scant regard for the truth. During a meeting with him and several U.S. diplomats in 2008, I was amazed to hear that you were imminent the same plans that had already qualified as such a conversation had continued into 2005, without seeming to feel no shame for not having advanced nothing in any of the things he had promised.
Al regime has always liked to take credit for the beautiful ideas proposed and has never acknowledged that not even attempt to implement them.
The Libyans know that this attitude represents a degree of hypocrisy higher than usual in the rest of the world, and many receive the magnanimous decrees coming from the heights as mere interference on the airwaves.
For a long time, the Libyans did not feel great love for Gadhafi, but not a special hatred, in many ways, was irrelevant to their daily lives, which was conducted under a tribal logic long before the regime took power. The Libyans are suspicious of democracy like to have a strong ruler who is able to prevent the outbreak of inter-tribal rivalries. But not like too much of your current ruler.
Gaddafi's regime has made several strategic errors since I published my article in 2006. The most obvious was his resignation the reform plans Saif. A Gaddafi was interested sustain the fierce battle between supporters of the hardliners and moderates, have a moderate spokesman for the West (hence the meeting between Saif and diplomats) and keep your face inflexible to their own people.
Within the government, each side had its moments of believe favorite, but for Gadhafi, the best way to ensure its hegemony was that the two were always on edge, without giving a true privilege to or others.
However, when this situation became untenable, in 2008, crushed the reformers and Saif thought had fallen into disgrace. While the Libyans, most had been shown cynical about the process of reform, which consisted more of economic reforms that the introduction of genuine democracy, "had been allowed not to abandon all hope and cling to the idea that Gaddafi really cared what was best for the people, not for him and his family.
Keep hard-line supporters in power it must have been unpopular, but give them more power, as she did Gaddafi in 2008, was catastrophic. The fact that a few days ago, was Saif's chosen to go on Libyan television to warn people about the possibility of "civil war" and promised a meeting on constitutional reform is very significant. Gadhafi did not have picked as the spokesman if he is unaware of the thirst for reform, he did not know that the decision to crush the ambitions of the country Saif helped stoke the fire that consumes far Tripoli. The next day, Gaddafi announced that his son was to form a committee to investigate current events. But Saif's intervention in television, which sounded too little too late, "desperate" in the words of Al Jazeera, and according to some commentators, addressed to his friends in the West rather than the Libyan people did not benefit their cause, of course.
The second mistake was the lack of attention to the poverty of the population. Libya is the wealthiest country in North Africa, with its vast oil wealth and small population. However, most Libyans live in terrible conditions. The State offers little civil society and does not meet even their most basic obligations. There is a charge of monitoring police who fail to support the leader, but little else. Although there is a housing crisis that has intensified in recent years, the regime has made no effort to provide acceptable public housing.
Wealth is concentrated in the hands of very few. A Gadhafi does not have cost anything to raise the standard of living of its people, by creating a sustainable economy and not dependent on oil, or distribute part of oil revenues, but has not made any of those things.
The third mistake was ignoring the needs of young people. Gaddafi is not only sclerotized, but entirely disconnected from the needs of citizens currents. When a third of the population is under 15 years and a much higher proportion under 25, it is clear that young people are key factor in governing with consistency. Gadhafi has lived embraced by his old buddies and do not know neither the nature nor the extent of discontent. The most clear, as in much of the Middle East, is the huge youth unemployment, for which there is no program improvement. Gaddafi has ever attempted to approach young people dissatisfied, and they feel that their voice is not heard nor has any weight.
is important that the protests began in the eastern part Libya. The Benghazi region has always been the least you have had the power of Gaddafi and which have sprung up almost all their problems. The modern Libya is an artificial construct, a remnant of colonialism, there is no historical reason to be a single country. Qadhafi's tribe is from the west, and east bothers his authority. In the nineties, eastern Libya was the scene of an armed rebellion which focused Islamic character in Benghazi and the Green Mountains.
Fear Gaddafi to Benghazi was one of the reasons that led him to spread the idea that a children's HIV epidemic was due a deliberate action Bulgarian nuns under the orders of Mossad.
A Gaddafi has always been very good at diverting the anger of an enemy to another and away from the line of fire. However, could not forever suppress its unpopularity in the area, the residents of Benghazi have always expressed their opposition to the regime with more freedom than in the western regions of the country and had long been awaiting the opportunity to take their wishes into practice .
guess I'm not and I can not know whether the regime will resist against this revolution. The answer to the demonstrations has been swift and brutal, because Qaddafi had seen how useless they had been more moderate measures taken in Egypt and Tunisia. But it is clear that the brutality is going to count for something, gives the impression that he is making more and more citizens outraged. A Libyan diplomat said several days ago: "The more people kill Gaddafi, more people will be unveiled."
power Gaddafi has long supported the essential nature of the Libyan docile. However, by ignoring the young, seems to have considered the possibility that now has a population less passive.
The young generation is eager to corner the old and bring new things. Libya's deputy ambassador to the UN said the other day that if Gaddafi does not resign willingly, "the Libyan people will dispose of it." Two members of the Libyan air force went to Malta because they preferred to desert to attack the demonstrators in Benghazi. The loss of the army's loyalty would be to Gaddafi.
When it does Qaddafi, Libya is likely to be seen embedded in internal battles and end up splitting into several smaller countries dominated by their respective local tribes.
The link that holds together Libya is coming down, and warnings about possible chaos right. Choose between chaos and oppression is always difficult, but the people are tired of oppression and corruption, and chaos may find it more attractive.
The only instrument that the regime has unequivocally on their side is the control of communications. Saif sought to improve communications throughout the country and bring the Internet to the Sahara, but he failed in this sense, his father probably be glad not to have heeded.
One of my contacts in Libya called me a few days ago, just before they cut all the lines. He said: "It is horrible, much worse than you think. Please say we need help."
