Thursday, October 8, 2009

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PERU'S GROWTH IS NOT DUE TO HUMAN CAPITAL


economic growth has led countries to development that is based on creativity, entrepreneurship and innovation of the human factor. In Peru, the growth has been due more to natural resources, investments in infrastructure, favorable international prices for minerals and to a lesser extent the quality of labor. It is therefore necessary to rethink the policy educativa.La education and education policy in Peru is oriented mainly to fight illiteracy and provide primary and secondary vast majority, while the quality of higher and technical education depends almost Some private universities and technical institutes. It is true that it is important that people understand what you read, know some math and have a universal culture, but that makes them good consumers and unskilled workers and nothing more. But you need to Peru to develop a set of people, some 20 to 30 thousand, who are producers and innovators with high levels of skill to drive technological change, labor and business innovation and cultural change in a competitive world globalized. It is therefore necessary policy and technical higher education, in which the state allocated funds, select some universities and institutes and set goals human capital formation of this elite able to imagine and implement new projects, make creative investments that generate added value, using the potential and generate demand for other low-skilled workers but ready to enter the era of management development knowledge. If there is more scientific and technical engineers, more international business managers, more creative artists, most agronomists and botanists ichthyologists researchers or entrepreneurs, just to point out some potential specialties, economic growth at the same time promote human development and would pull in a natural way primary and secondary education. Today, the Peruvian education model expects that the primary and secondary education "push" to higher education, when it should be at revés.Esta public policy should be based on a strategic partnership between public and private universities and technical institutes class in regions carefully chosen to create "poles of development of human capital" would change our current primary-export model and service, which allows growth without reducing inequality and poverty, export development model, not only primary, decentralized and innovative based on high quality human capabilities.

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El Perú es un país en desarrollo, su Índice de Desarrollo Humano fue de 0,788 en 2006El 36,2% de su población se encontraba (al final del año 2008) en la línea de pobreza. Según la América Economía y el Fondo Monetario Internacional, el Perú se sitúa en el año 2008 con la segunda inflación más baja del mundo después de Francia y por lo tanto una de las economías más sólidas de la región.De acuerdo a lo publicado por la escuela de negocios suiza IMD, el Perú en el 2008 se encontraba en el puesto número 35 del ranking global competitiveness. The Peruvian economy is considered a remarkable growth rate compared to other economies in the world, only comparable to that of China. Peru's economy showed up last summer more vigorous growth throughout the region, measured in terms of economic development index. With a base value for 2005 equals 100, the indicator reached a high of 190.6 in April 2008. But since then, the global financial crisis hit full in its economic system and the index fell more than 22 percent. In January 2009, its value is 148.2 points and shows a decline of ten percentage points over the same month of 2008. The annual comparison shows that the sectors most affected by the crisis were the capital markets, the collapse of the Lima stock exchange and the Public Sector. Conversely, it is good the activity and price developments and the international context bancario.El Sector has been very favorable in 2008. The financial crisis began in the U.S. in the middle of last year was exacerbated in 2008 and spread to the real sector and the rest of this mundo.Con, the world economy began a slow process that eventually affect emerging economies, with more intensely since 2008.A desetiembre in spite of this, economic activity in Peru occurred in 2008 an annual expansion of 9.8%. GDP remained buoyant during the first three quarters, which grew more than 10% year, then slowed in the fourth quarter, in line with the deepening of the crisis int. Despite this result, economic activity accumulates thirty quarters of uninterrupted expansion.

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CONCEPTUAL ECONOMIC SITUATION MAP OF PERU PERU ECONOMY



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Agricultural Exports had a low of 26% in the first quarter of 2009 compared with the same period in 2008. $ 306 million are exported in 2009 from U.S. $ 412 million in the first quarter of 2008. peso exports in 2009 reached to 183 thousand metric tons, against 267 000 MT in 2008 to a low of 31.5%. The Traditional exports, basically Café grew by 12% to export U.S. $ 44 million against $ 39 million in 2008. Nontraditional Products shrank from 30% to export U.S. $ 262 million from U.S. $ 372 million 2008.Destacan the decline in exports of cocoa butter that was sold U.S. $ 382 thousand to U.S. $ 3.2 million 2008. Evaporated milk is exported U.S. $ 7.1 million compared to U.S. $ 19.6 million in 2008. Bakery Products $ 4.1 million versus $ 5.7 million total 2008.En are $ 105 million have fallen agricultural commodity exports.


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EXPORTS EXPORT AND IMPORT OF PERU

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GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA GDP

The Peruvian economy is benefiting from the magnitude and form healthy growth in recent years. It is an economy without major macroeconomic imbalances and much larger, diversified, strong and serious than in the past. It is noteworthy that the countries that were increasingly based on domestic demand dynamics are best able to face the international storm.
Moreover, the fiscal accounts registered a surplus for the third consecutive year, which was around 2.5% of GDP. This is consistent with the higher tax revenue product of the good results achieved by companies
According to Central Bank figures, the Andean country showed a deficit in its current account balance of 3.3% of GDP in 2008, compared with a surplus of 1.1% of GDP in 2007.
For 2009, we estimate a current account deficit of 3.3 percent of GDP.
The bank added that Peru recorded a fiscal surplus of 2.1% of GDP in 2008 compared with a surplus of 3.1 percent of GDP in 2007. Regarding the trade balance in 2008 registered a surplus of 2.4% of GDP, compared with a surplus of 7.7 percent of GDP in 2007.
Meanwhile, overseas remittances last year were equivalent to 1.9 percent of GDP compared with 2.0 percent of GDP in 2007.

The latest GDP growth figures are a clear indicator that the global crisis has already impacted the Peruvian economy and that, therefore, Peru was not "armored" with the global recession. Contrary to what the Government commented for months, the historical evidence allowed us to anticipate that the global crisis will severely impact the export sector and thus, through a multiplier effect, the nontradable sector of the economy. This is exactly what happened. The manufacturing sector, for example, experienced in February 1 drop of 7.5%, the trade sector fell by 0.2% and the construction sector grew by just 4.7%, well below projections. The anti-crisis plan the government could partially alleviate the effects of the crisis in the short term. However, the demonstrated inability of the public sector to spend efficiently the large resources that account is a major constraint. With all this, it is already clear that this year the economy will grow well below 5%.


How much can we really grow?

Economic theory tells us that there is a direct relationship between investment rates, productivity and long-term trend of economic growth. A higher rate of investment and higher productivity growth, the greater the long-term growth of the economy (higher potential GDP growth). In 2008, the investment rate was 26.6% (as percentage of GDP). If investment rates remain at these levels, how can we grow? Let's review some historical figures. In the period 1950-2008, the rate of investment in Peru was 21% and annual growth rate of GDP was 3.5%. This suggests that with an investment rate of 27%, we may steadily grow more than 3.5%. How much more? Peru never has had investment rates of 25% or more over a long period of time. Then reviews the evidence for countries that have investment rates higher than 25%. According to IMF data, in the period 1980-2008, the group of newly industrialized Asian economies (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan) had an investment rate of 28.9% and an annual growth rate of 6.3% GDP . In the same period, the group of emerging Asian economies (26 economies, including China and India) had an investment rate of 32.3% and an annual GDP growth of 7.4%. Between 1992 and 2008, the group of emerging and developing economies had an investment rate of 26.1% and an annual growth rate of 5.1%. Therefore, the evidence shows that an economy with an investment rate of around 27% can grow steadily at a rate of about 6% and that only with an investment rate of over 30% can grow to 7 %. Some say that Peru "can not afford" to grow only 5% or 6%, then we need to reduce poverty rapidly. Certainly, one would grow at rates of 20% or 30% every year in order to reduce poverty rapidly. But this is not possible. Even grow at 10% is possible in the long run, given our investment rates. Given current rates of investment would grow at a healthy rate of 6%. Unless we increase investment rates well above the current, we should not therefore seek to achieve higher growth rates. The healthy thing would grow at a rate of 6% in the coming years, given current rates of investment. Consequently, unless we increase investment rates well above the current, we should not try to reach higher growth rates.

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2009 according to the IMF. (International Monetary Foundation) 2009

1. CHILE: 14.461
2. ARGENTINA: 14.188
3. MEXICO: 14.017
4. URUGUAY: 13.594
5. VENEZUELA: 12.372
6. PANAMA: 11.589
7. COSTA RICA: 10.737
8. BRAZIL: 10.153
9. PERU: 8.825
10. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: 8.570
11. COLOMBIA: 8.161
12. EL SALVADOR: 7.570
13. ECUADOR: 7.496
14. GUATEMALA: 4.873
15. PARAGUAY: 4.751
16. BOLIVIA: 4.379
17. HONDURAS: 4.282
18. NICARAGUA: 2.668









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CONCEPTUAL MAP OF GDP


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TLC - TLC PERU

Free Trade Agreement Chile-Peru
trade agreement signed on August 22, 2006 in Lima, Peru, being the representative Chile, meanwhile, Foreign Minister Alejandro Foxley. The agreement is a breakthrough in relations between both countries, weakened during the governments of Alejandro Toledo in Peru and Ricardo Lagos in Chile.
FTA US-Peru
Peru has negotiated since May 2004, a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States. This FTA replaces the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA). objectives are to eliminate barriers to trade, consolidating access to goods and services and promote private investment attraction.
FTA Peru-Thailand
is a trade agreement signed on November 8, 2005 in Bangkok, Thailand by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Peru, Oscar Maurtua and Prime Minister of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra . The aim of this treaty Peru have a gateway to trade in Asia. This treaty was signed during the Summit APEC.
How does the U.S. economic crisis to the free trade agreement with Peru?
If the American President says you have to consume what the U.S. produces, then it will affect us in sectors such as textiles, mechanical metal or tourism. If the President of Peru says to eat what Peru produces, suddenly we were going to export to the U.S. we will have to consume internally. We are talking about the return of protectionism. The Peru-US FTA goes into effect at a time when the crisis is forcing countries to protectionism which is quite curious for a neo-liberal thinking. That is, we do not know which of the two forces impact the Peru, if the American demand restraint or expansion of the Peruvian export offer not exported.


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Exports
http://exportacionesdelperu.blogspot.com/
http://latinopinion.wordpress.com/2009/01/03/peru-2009-la-inversion-extranjera-decide/
http://www.iirsa.org/BancoMedios/Documentos20PDF/cnr12_baires08_exportafacil_peru.pdf

Bolsa De Valores (10/07/2009)
http://economiayfinanzasdeperu.blogspot.com/